Playoff odds?

11 May 2007

Dave ‘Statto’ Watkin takes a look at the playoff form book...

In the 18 matches between clubs finishing 4th & 5th, the 4th placed side has come out on top 8 times. Of those eight; 3 successfully won away in the first game ( Swindon (1990) beat Blackburn 2-1 and won the 2nd leg; Charlton (1998) beat Ipswich 1-0 and won the 2nd leg; Barnsley (2000) beat Birmingham 4-0, lost their home leg but won on aggregate); 2 drew the first game (Leicester (1992) drew 1-1 at Cambridge, then thrashed them in the return; Leicester again (1994) drew 0-0 at Tranmere and won their home leg); 3 lost in the away leg (significantly perhaps Bolton (1995) lost 2-1 to Wolves but won the 2nd leg 2-0; Preston (2001) lost 1-0 at Birmingham won the return and went through on penalties; West Ham (2004) lost 1-0 but won their home leg by two goals.

History tells us that the 4th placed club has won the away leg 3 times, drawn 7 and lost 8. All those 3 away winners went through; but surprisingly perhaps only 2 of 7 who drew reached the final; but 3 of 8 who lost did! Incidentally, the 3 sides who lost the away leg by more than one goal all went out. The lesson is fairly self evident, go for a win, but make sure you don't lose heavily.

Exactly half of the 4th placed clubs who went on to reach the final won, the 4 were Swindon (1990), Leicester (1994), Bolton (1995) and Charlton (1998) on penalties, but there's been none in the last eight years, time to reverse that trend! The best way to look at it, from our point of view, is to ignore any final not at Wembley, then the 4th placed club has reached 6 out of 11 finals in the capital and won 4, better than any of the others! A bit of spin and statistics can prove anything!

You won't need reminding of the best omen. Albion were 4th in Division 2 in 1993, lost to 5th placed Swansea in the 1st leg of the play-off semi-final 2-1, won the 2nd leg 2-0 and won the final against 3rd placed Port Vale 3-0.

Previous Stories:

  26 April 2007:  Luck of the Irish!

  20 April 2007:  Where is home?

  30 March 2007:  Behind The Scenes with the Kiddy Branch

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